There are three factors of this unpredictability:
President Putin more and more is focused on upholding stability in Russia at every cost. His aversion to reforms that can tip the balance and suppression of every organized dissent freezes the dynamics in the economy, social relations, and politics. It may lead to spots of pent-up tensions that are hidden until a sudden change triggers an explosion. Something like that happened with ethnic tensions in the USSR that started to cascade throughout the country starting in 1986.
- Since he seemingly intends to sit as long as possible, and the whole Russian elite supports him in that, the timeline of his rule is unpredictable. He can exit tomorrow, or first in 20 years. The mechanism of succession is not established. There is no independent body that can manage the transition.
- National wealth is more and more concentrated along the lines of Putin’s political support. In other words, to become rich and stay rich, you need to permanently shore up Putin’s power. The restriction this places on social mobility and business opportunities can unleash a huge wave of nationalization and re-distribution of fortunes once Putin is gone.
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