President Donald Trump has been under fire from media for his super natural ability of decision making from the very day he got the keys of office. From breaking out of Trans-Pacific Partnership to building wall on Mexican border from decision on transgender troops and now the decision of breaking out of Iran nuclear deal, his life at office is full of such controversial decisions. Other than Saudi Arabia and Israel most of countries rejected US decision of cancelling the Nuclear deal. Many critiques of his decision came up hard on this including former US president Barack Obama who called it as "so misguided" and a "serious mistake". Former US president Barack Obama on his Facebook page responded to this "There are few issues more important to the security of the US than the potential spread of nuclear weapons, or the potential for even more destructive war in the Middle East. That’s why the US negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the first place". The critiques of this historic shift of US foreign policy suggest that this might ignite the flames of new race for acquiring nuclear weapons in the world, If Iran go back for nuclear proliferation. Up till now the issue was Iran centered but now after this US has to deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran and North Korea as well. But one thing is for sure Donald Trump is man of word, he does what’s he says. While announcing the end to deal what he describes as "decaying and rotten" agreement he had some vision for the future. Many commentators are calling it suicide decision referring it as win-win situation for Iran but there are some significant things which many missed and might turns the table.
Economic crisis for Iran
last year Iran had 30% devaluation of its currency. Now with US cancelling the deal and putting the sanctions will further impact economy of Iran with expected decrease in exports and trade. Moreover, Saudi Arabian rapprochement with Russia and economic reforms clearly indicate of increasing oil prices that is another factor adding fuel to declining economy of Iran.
Stopped Iran from making Nuclear weapons
The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency is keeping an eye on Iran nuclear program since 2015. To keep the deal intact Atomic Energy agency is monitoring Iran’s uranium enrichment plants, regular investigation for any suspicious activity is under way using dust samples. Even tough US announced end to the accord but still EU, Russia and China are upholding the accord. Iran is not in a position where Iran can break the accord with other countries in order to restart working on uranium enrichment plants because this might result in the reinstatement of sanctions from EU and other countries of the world which Iran can never afford epically having shadows of unemployment, decrease in tourism back at home.
North Korea pressure on Iran
On the other hand, if Donald Trump can pull out any deal with North Kores on limitation of nuclear proliferation in his upcoming meeting with Kim Jong-un it’s double victory for the US. US will be in better position to convince its allies to pressurize Iran for limitation of Iran nuclear proliferation. The chances of deal between US and North Korea is very much in the list, North Korea has already announced to dismantle Punggye-ri nuclear site where observation facilities, research buildings and security posts are situated.
US played a very smart move, US indirectly stopped Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons moreover after expected deal with North Korea US will in position to convince its allies to pressurize Iran to go into another fresh Deal. Iranian government dealing with domestic pressure due to bad economic situation will be easy to negotiate with. It’s clearly a win-win situation for Donald Trump quite opposite to what many are describing.
Author :
Talha Ahmad, Student of media and mass communication at International Islamic University Islamabad. He has a deep interest in Geo-strategic & Regional dynamics. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect. https://www.facebook.com/Talhaahmadjournalist
Deep Analysis ... Keep it up
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